Archive for the ‘Miscellaneous’ Category

fatherly doting

Friday, March 7th, 2008

An Apartment Buying Spree for a Billionaire Investor

For the average New Yorker, moving in from the outer boroughs to more centrally-located digs in Manhattan is an “arrival” of sorts. For billionaire investor Ira Rennert, it’s a drop in the bucket.

Mr. Rennert, a native of Brooklyn who made his fortune in metals junk bonds and subsequently bought and sold the company that invented the Humvee, just purchased two Park Avenue apartments — one for each of his daughters, The New York Observer’s Max Abelson reported.

Tamara Winn and her husband will occupy at $32 million duplex at 740 Park Ave., perhaps the “most yearned-for building” in the city, Mr. Abelson notes. That deal, which closed Thursday, places Mr. and Mrs. Winn among the well-heeled likes of the Blackstone Group’s Stephen A. Schwarzman, who lives there in John D. Rockefeller’s old apartment.

Meanwhile, Yonina Davidson and her husband will take over Vera Wang’s old place at 778 Park Ave. The 14-room apartment closed Friday morning for $33.6 million.

Mr. Abelson reports that no mortgage records were filed for either purchase. If that’s the case, Mr. Rennert appears to have spent $65.6 million — in cash — in the space of a few days.

That takes fatherly doting to a whole new level.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/08/an-apartment

-buying-spree-for-a-billionaire-investor/

1 in 100 U.S. Adults Behind Bars

Friday, March 7th, 2008

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/us/28cnd-prison.html?

em&ex=1204347600&en=6aecb8004a8e95fc&ei=5087%0A

1 in 100 U.S. Adults Behind Bars, New Study Says

Published: February 28, 2008

For the first time in the nation’s history, more than one in 100 American adults is behind bars, according to a new report.

 

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Growth in Incarceration

 

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Text of the Report (pewcenteronthestates.org)

Nationwide, the prison population grew by 25,000 last year, bringing it to almost 1.6 million. Another 723,000 people are in local jails. The number of American adults is about 230 million, meaning that one in every 99.1 adults is behind bars.

Incarceration rates are even higher for some groups. One in 36 Hispanic adults is behind bars, based on Justice Department figures for 2006. One in 15 black adults is, too, as is one in nine black men between the ages of 20 and 34.

The report, from the Pew Center on the States, also found that only one in 355 white women between the ages of 35 and 39 are behind bars but that one in 100 black women are.

The report’s methodology differed from that used by the Justice Department, which calculates the incarceration rate by using the total population rather than the adult population as the denominator. Using the department’s methodology, about one in 130 Americans is behind bars.

Either way, said Susan Urahn, the center’s managing director, “we aren’t really getting the return in public safety from this level of incarceration.”

But Paul Cassell, a law professor at the University of Utah and a former federal judge, said the Pew report considered only half of the cost-benefit equation and overlooked the “very tangible benefits — lower crime rates.”

In the past 20 years, according the Federal Bureau of Investigation, violent crime rates fell by 25 percent, to 464 for every 100,000 people in 2007 from 612.5 in 1987.

“While we certainly want to be smart about who we put into prisons,” Professor Cassell said, “it would be a mistake to think that we can release any significant number of prisoners without increasing crime rates. One out of every 100 adults is behind bars because one out of every 100 adults has committed a serious criminal offense.”

Ms. Urahn said the nation cannot afford the incarceration rate documented in the report. “We tend to be a country in which incarceration is an easy response to crime,” she said. “Being tough on crime is an easy position to take, particularly if you have the money. And we did have the money in the ‘80s and ‘90s.”

Now, with fewer resources available, the report said, “prison costs are blowing a hole in state budgets.” On average, states spend almost 7 percent on their budgets on corrections, trailing only healthcare, education and transportation.

In 2007, according to the National Association of State Budgeting Officers, states spent $44 billion in tax dollars on corrections. That is up from $10.6 billion in 1987, a 127 increase once adjusted for inflation. With money from bonds and the federal government included, total state spending on corrections last year was $49 billion. By 2011, the report said, states are on track to spend an additional $25 billion.

It cost an average of $23,876 dollars to imprison someone in 2005, the most recent year for which data were available. But state spending varies widely, from $45,000 a year in Rhode Island to $13,000 in Louisiana.

The cost of medical care is growing by 10 percent annually, the report said, and will accelerate as the prison population ages.

About one in nine state government employees works in corrections, and some states are finding it hard to fill those jobs. California spent more than $500 million on overtime alone in 2006.

The number of prisoners in California dropped by 4,000 last year, making Texas’s prison system the nation’s largest, at about 172,000. But the Texas legislature last year approved broad changes to the corrections system there, including expansions of drug treatment programs and drug courts and revisions to parole practices.

“Our violent offenders, we lock them up for a very long time — rapists, murderers, child molestors,” said John Whitmire, a Democratic state senator from Houston and the chairman of the state senate’s criminal justice committee. “The problem was that we weren’t smart about nonviolent offenders. The legislature finally caught up with the public.”

He gave an example.

“We have 5,500 D.W.I offenders in prison,” he said, including people caught driving under the influence who had not been in an accident. “They’re in the general population. As serious as drinking and driving is, we should segregate them and give them treatment.”

The Pew report recommended diverting nonviolent offenders away from prison and using punishments short of reincarceration for minor or technical violations of probation or parole. It also urged states to consider earlier release of some prisoners.

Before the recent changes in Texas, Mr. Whitmire said, “we were recycling nonviolent offenders.”

Stupid Data Miner Tricks

Sunday, April 29th, 2007

http://nerdsonwallstreet.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/04/stupid_data_min.html

April 10, 2007

Stupid Data Miner Tricks

This collective web thing actually works. I got an email from ace quant investment manager John Bogle who’d seen a post from  Paul Kedrosky.  Both were looking for a copy of Stupid Data Miner tricks, a paper in the current Journal of Investing.

The JoI is not fully onboard the “information wants to free” train, so as a good citizen of the interweb series of tubes, I’m depositing an earlier version right here. Download dataminejune_2000.pdf

Here’s the introduction:

Disraeli’s warning that “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics”  is particularly true when too much computation is applied to too little data. This paper presents some egregious yet instructional examples of data mining, and describes ways to avoid similar mishaps.

It started out as a set of joke slides showing silly spurious correlations over ten years ago. These statistically appealing relationships between the stock market and diary products and third world livestock populations have been cited often, in Business Week, the Wall Street Journal, the book “A Mathematician Looks at the Stock Market”, and many others. Students from Bill Sharpe’s classes at Stanford seem to be familiar with them. This was expanded, to have some actual content about data mining, and reissued as an academic working paper in 2001. Occasional requests for this arrive from distant corners of the world. So I’d like to thank the editors of the Journal of Trading for publishing this.

Without taking a hatchet to the original, the advice here is still valuable, perhaps more so, now that there is so much more data to mine. Monthly data arrives as one data point, once a month. It’s hard to avoid data mining sins if you look twice. Ticks, quotes, and executions arrive in millions per minute, and many of the practices which fail the statistical sniff tests for low frequency data can now be used responsibly. New frontiers in data mining have been opened up by the availability of vast amounts of textual information. Whatever raw material you choose, fooling yourself remains an occupational hazard in quantitative trading.


PS - DIY dataminers will want to check this: http://swivel.com/

Survivor Bonds: Helping to Hedge Mortality Risk

Sunday, April 29th, 2007

Survivor Bonds: Helping to Hedge Mortality Risk
David Blake, William Burrows
The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 68, No. 2 (Jun., 2001), pp. 339-348
doi:10.2307/2678106

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-4367(200106)68%3A2%3C339%3ASBHTHM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V

Welcome to Riskmoment

Wednesday, April 18th, 2007

Welcome to Riskmoment. Risk ALM. This is WordPress format and first post April 18, 2007.